DST Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis

Research at this Centre is dedicated to modelling of disease transmission and progression, focusing on South Africa's major health challenges.

Epidemiology is a quantitative, interdisciplinary science using mathematical modelling and dynamical analysis to provide patterns of disease progression, in space and time, at population and within-hosts level, to identify the principal causes of diseases and to provide health policy makers with a sound scientific basis for their decisions.

The research projects are all fuelled by the need to alleviate the effects of major diseases currently affecting people in South Africa, and in Africa as a whole, in particular the HIV/AIDS pandemic.

The projects and key issues being addressed are:

• Modelling and analysis of data on HIV/TB interaction and development of a comprehensive TB/HIV database.
• Modelling of the impact of male circumcision on HIV transmission.
• Modelling of the dynamics of HIV virus on the cellular level.
• Estimation of HIV incidence from cohort studies and cross-sectional analysis.
• Vaccine modelling and effect of rolling-out ARV therapy.
• Mathematical modelling of epidemics in populations and modelling of malaria control.

Contact: Prof John Hargrove, Tel +27 21 808 2893, hosted by Stellenbosch University.